In today's newsletter ...

• Off The Top: Giving the OC his flowers

• What Else We Liked

  • Turnover Town

• Who Impressed

  • John Mateer

• What Needs Work

  • Too much bending

• Up Next

  • San Diego State Aztecs

Off The Top: Giving the OC his flowers

I don’t have the greatest memory when it comes to the details of past games, so I can’t say this with 100% confidence, but I have a hard time believing Ben Arbuckle has called a better game in his year and a half on the job than he did in WSU’s workmanlike 42-10 domination of Hawai’i on Saturday.

This comes just a week after he was the focus of much ire — not just from me, but also from his boss — for a lack of dedication to putting the ball in the hands of his running backs.

That certainly wasn’t a problem on Saturday. In contrast to the puzzling play calling against Fresno State — where running backs had just nine carries midway through the fourth quarter — Arbuckle dialed up 27 handoffs against Hawai’i, including eight on the first drive alone.

It didn’t work out on that first drive, as Leo Pulalasi got stuffed a couple of times on third and fourth down needing to gain just three yards between the two carries in plus territory. But the point was made — and, I reckon, information gathered that worked in the Cougs’ favor for the rest of the contest.

Before we get any farther, let’s compare last week to this week (I’ve removed the garbage time drive with Jaxon Potter at QB):

Pretty huge difference! Basically, the proportion of dropbacks and QB keepers were marginally reduced, with those plays going to the running backs instead. Now, this all comes with a bit of a caveat: In his postgame, John Mateer alluded to RPOs — run/pass options where the QB has the power to decide between them based on the look the defense gives him pre-snap. He also said those plays made up 170 yards of the 444 total that WSU gained. So the exact proportion of dropbacks to handoffs/keepers is obviously influenced by that, and it’s tough for my untrained eye to know exactly which plays were which. But even knowing that Mateer controlled at least some of the outcomes at the line of scrimmage, I think it’s hard to argue that there wasn’t a dedicated effort to run the ball more — it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the RPOs often involved formations that they believed were going to give them favorable run looks.

I think what I liked the most about the playcalling is that — outside of the first drive — there seemed to be a nice variety of plays that kept Hawai’i’s defense off balance, working in the Cougs’ favor as the game went along. For example, rather than going to QB runs early (as we did last week), the first QB run didn’t come until after halftime. There were only four of them, but each of them were called at a perfect spot² and well executed — with two of them going for TDs:

Overall, the offense wasn’t hugely explosive, finishing with 6.7 yards per play, but that represented an improvement of 2.5 ypp over last week — and against a much better defense. It was fractionally better than what Boise State put up against Hawai’i (6.73 to 6.72), which was the previous high allowed by the Rainbow Warriors. Pretty good!

But that wasn’t even the most impressive thing about it to me. We’ve seen plenty of explosive plays, only to watch drives stall out. On Saturday, the offense also was consistent. Out of these 67 called plays, nearly 60% would be classified as successful¹ . The second half was a master class, as each of the first three drives ended with a TD: First drive, success on 10 of 14 plays; second drive, 3 of 5; and third drive, 4-for-4. That’s 74% combined. That is how you move the ball in a way that makes everyone very happy!

“I think we I think we had to want to to go out there and run the football,” coach Jake Dickert said after the game. “It felt coming into the game that we could, and you know, we just weren't getting the hat placement (in the first half). They did a couple different things, they didn't stay in their gaps, they were rocking back — we had some runs on tape that we watched at halftime (where we said), ‘They're there, stay with it,’ and you know, that's what we did. … We'll continue to make the corrections, but it shows once again, when we can run the ball, we're very dangerous on offense.”

Good on Arbuckle for making it happen.

What Else We Liked

Turnover Town

Turnovers are enormously predictive of game outcomes, and whatever chance Hawai’i had to make Saturday’s game competitive went down the toilet with their three giveaways.

And — unlike most announcers or coaches — I do call them “giveaways,” because whether the ball changes hands is more or less entirely up to the offense. If they don’t put the ball where the other team’s hands are, there’s no opportunity for the defense to “take” it — which is why defenses whose successes are predicated on turnovers can be very vulnerable at times.

That said …

Teams can do a lot defensively to increase the probability that the offense will make one of those major errors, and the Cougs definitely did a lot of that to Hawai’i. They harassed Brayden Schager repeatedly, and he dealt with it admirably early by making some really impressive throws. But it’s awfully hard for a QB to continually complete passes while running for his life, and Schager eventually paid the piper when he threw the ball across his body one to many times, into the waiting hands of Buddah Al-Uqdah. Schager’s second turnover came while being sacked on a free runner off a blitz up the middle. Even the recovery of the fumble by 290-pound defensive tackle Bryson Lamb was made possible by his hustle in pursuing the wide receiver 10 yards downfield.

It’s the second week in a row that turnovers played a massive role in the Cougs’ favor, with the Cougs forcing the hand of the opponent and making the plays when they became available. The Cougs certainly played a role in making them happen, and while it’s unwise to depend on them (more on that in a sec), it sure is great when you get them.

Who Impressed

John Mateer

This isn’t the first time we’ve recognized Mateer in this section, and while I usually try to pick someone who isn’t the quarterback, there’s really no other choice today. He was very, very good: 23 of 27 for 295 yards, 34 yards rushing, 5 total TDs … and zero turnovers.

He was in total command from just about start to finish. There really was only one semi-dangerous throw, and other than that, his myriad talents were on full display.

“I think when we look back at the whole game, I felt John was really confident,” Dickert said. “I thought he was really controlled — you know, you don't remember all those wild scramble plays that we've had.”

What caused that confidence? Especially for a guy who looked a bit indecisive a week ago against Fresno State? Both Dickert and Mateer alluded to a simplification of the offensive game plan.

“I think at this point it was an emphasis to kind of narrow it down and just do the stuff we're good at,” Mateer said. “It worked out today, right? Put up a lot of yards and a lot of points. I think it's cool — we have great coaches, they're very clever, and they come up with some great ideas, and some of those things I didn't execute well enough early (in the season), so we kept it simple this game because their defensive structure allowed that.”

Said Dickert: “I thought he was in control. Like I said, we kind of narrowed the menu down a little bit to the things that he's really confident in, and I think you saw that. John continues to get better. I think as the game went on, we didn't want to run him too much, and I thought he played quarterback today. At the end of the day we just utilized all his skill sets which are really really good.”

Speaking of “playing quarterback,” Mateer’s also learning how to talk like one.

“I mean, I think it's just a testament to the people in the building. They they reminded me they all believe in me, and they told me that, and I think I just got back to the work,” Mateer said. “You know I I'm glad it happened like this, but it was because the lineman, they finished you know? And the receivers, they finished, they blocked down field — I don't score those two rushing touchdowns if Chris Hutson doesn't block that block. It’s critical.”

Our (not so) little man is growing up right before our eyes!

What Needs Work

Too much bending

“Bend but don’t break” is definitely better than “bend and also break,” but I think we all would like to see a little less bending on the part of the defense.

Hawai’i — a pretty bad offensive team by just about any measure — was down its top two receivers and playing on the mainland, where they traditionally struggle. If you only saw they scored 10 points, you’d think the Cougs flat-out dominated. But the scoreboard belied the extent of their troubles when Hawai’i had the ball. The Rainbow Warriors averaged 5.7 yards per play, and while that’s not spectacular by any means, it is the first time they’ve gone over 5.0 against an FBS opponent. I’m not looking a gift horse in the mouth here — the score was great, the turnovers were awesome — but it’s a bit concerning that the defense wasn’t any more dominant than it was.

Hawai’i made three trips into the red zone, giving WSU’s opponents 27 for the year — 104th in FBS. However, they’re 49th in the percentage of those trips that end in TDs (56%). Keeping teams out of the end zone will paper over a multitude of sins along the way, but if who they are is a team that allows a ton of yards between the 20s begore stiffening up — and, after seven games, it’s probably fair to say this is, in fact, who and what they are — they’re probably going to have another game similar to San Jose State where they don’t get so lucky with teams stalling out or turning it over when they get inside the 20.

Let’s hope the offense will again be up to the task on that day.

Up Next

San Diego State Aztecs

Another week, another MWC team with a pretty putrid offense against whom the Cougars will be favored, even on the road: WSU opened as a two-TD favorite in the betting markets.

SDSU — another one of our future Pac-12 peers — is supposed to be a school that is primed for a rise in football stature following the opening of a gorgeous new stadium — from 2015 to 2021, they won 10 or more games five times in six (full) seasons. But the Aztecs’ effort to truly get that endeavor off the ground has been a bit of a struggle; they went 11-14 in the past two seasons, leading Brady Hoke to retire. Things aren’t going much better for new coach Sean Lewis, with SDSU sitting at 3-3 after eking out a pair of three-point wins over Hawaii (at home) and Wyoming (on the road).

The challenge here is very similar to what it was against Hawai’i, only up a level: Bad offense, better defense.

Defensively, the Aztecs are solid, allowing just 22.7 points per game (59th) and 2.1 points per drive (62nd). But they are terrible offensively. They run the ball (201 rushing attempts, after taking out sacks) more than they pass (183 attempts, after adding the sacks). That, of course, is going to be a very different challenge for the Cougs as compared to the pass-heavy attacks most teams face on weekly basis. The problem for the Aztecs is that they actually aren’t very good at what they do: Even after you take the sacks out, they’re only averaging 4.2 yards per carry. That makes it awfully tough to score points in the modern game, and they rank 116th in points per drive.

One quick thing to keep in mind: Remember my whole thing about giveaways vs. takeaways? SDSU has only given the ball away four times all season, compared to 14 for the Cougs’ first seven opponents combined. WSU should not expect any gifts this week, which will very likely make this a bit more of a rock fight with the teams fighting over each yard.

Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. PT with the broadcast on CBS Sports Network.

1  Success is determined as gaining 50% of the needed yards on first down, 70% on second down, and 100% on third or fourth down.

2  Again, Mateer said both were option plays — the first one an RPO, the second a handoff/keeper. And — again — I think it’s likely that WSU called them knowing that the keeper was probably going to end up being the better option.