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Gonzaga 88, WSU 75: Quick Recap

The Cougars and Bulldogs met for the first time in more than 3,000 days, but the result was the same as it was back in December 2015 with WSU unable to keep up with their neighbors to the north.

It was a game that was simultaneously as close and not as close as the final score would indicate. That’s because WSU played Gonzaga to a virtual stalemate in the first half, leading by two with under a minute to play before the break. The Cougars shot 56%, including 11-of-16 (69%) inside the arc and 5-of-11 (45%) outside it, going toe to toe with the big bad Zags.

But it was the way the first half would finish that would prove to be a harbinger of the second half, when things were not nearly as close. Leading by those two points, WSU gave up a 3-pointer with just about 30 seconds to go; then, with a chance to take the last shot and reclaim the lead, the Cougars turned the ball over — their 12th(!) of the half — and Gonzaga hit an improbable running layup over two outstretched defenders to take a three-point lead into the locker room.

The Cougars picked up right where they left off, and in the worst way possible. Facing relentless pressure from the Bulldogs, who challenged every pass, the Cougars continued to turn the ball over — and this time, their shooting couldn’t make up for it. A 13-0 run extending back to the first half opened up an 11-point lead for the Zags with just three minutes gone in the second half; after just four more minutes, that run would extend to 29-7 to give Gonzaga a 20-point lead.

From a 1-point lead to game over in eight minutes. Sigh.

In A Minute

• Cougfan recap from Friend of the Pod Jamey Vinnick

• Stats

• Line o’ the night: Nate Calmese with 20 points on 9-of-14 shooting (1-of-2 from 3) with 8 assists, 4 steals … and 4 turnovers.

• One stat to tell the tale: 1.46 — points per possession allowed by WSU’s defense to Gonzaga in the second half as the Bulldogs shot 19-of-28 (5-of-9 from 3).

Highlights/Interviews

Three Thoughts

1. A tale of two halves

I think those of us with reasonable expectations always figured the Cougars would lose their grip on the game at some point — it was just a matter of when. Gonzaga is very good, and the Kennel is a ridiculously tough place to play¹ . These two things go hand-in-hand, of course; when the Bulldogs get rolling, the oversized high school gym can feel to players like it’s closing in on them, affecting both their performance and that of the officials.

That said, the first half gave us a lot of hope. Personally, I was thrilled with how it went: Our defense was hard-nosed and on point, and despite the plethora of mistakes in the form of turnovers and the adjacent difficulties getting the ball into the paint, we trailed by just three. My hope was that with halftime adjustments, they’d be able to tweak their post entry strategies and start pounding the paint, as they almost always do.

It didn’t happen, as the shooting that kept them afloat went cold, and Gonzaga refused to miss. It’s worth remembering that the Bulldogs have the No. 4 offense in the nation by kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, so there was very likely always going to be a run. And it came at the beginning of the second half.

Unlike in Thursday’s loss to Pacific, the energy required to scrap back just wasn’t there — which leads me to wonder if the legs are starting to give out a little after so many games with such a short bench due to the comical² number of injuries sustained by this team. Yes, Saturday’s game came on the heels of that overtime stunner two days before, but that’s obviously on top of all the other stuff. And not only are players logging heavy minutes, they’re also being asked to do more in those minutes — for example, Nate Calmese isn’t really a point guard, but he’s pretty much all we’ve got, which means that while he’s shooting as many shots as he did two years ago at Lamar, his usage (adding in assists and turnovers) is up; and LeJuan Watts isn’t really a point forward, but someone has to handle the ball when Calmese isn’t, which means even though his proportion of shots is down from a year ago, his usage also is up.

These are just a couple of examples; I could do this with most every player. It all adds up, and against a team of Gonzaga’s quality, the Cougs just didn’t have 40 minutes of fight in them.

2. The offense was still pretty good!

Still, there were plenty of positives. One big one is that the Cougars ended up scoring 1.08 points per possession, which — while below their standards — is the sixth highest scored against the Bulldogs this year and the second highest Gonzaga has allowed at the Kennel. They shot 62% on 2s and 38% on 3s to post the highest effective field goal percentage allowed by the Zags this year. And we did it on the road. That is a very real thing to hang our hats on.

A minor but important part of that was that we finally got some offensive contributions from the bench guys — particularly in the first half. ND Okafor, Kase Wynott, and Parker Gerrits combined for 23 first-half minutes, scoring 15 points between them on a perfect 6-of-6 combined with Gerrits and Wynott each hitting a 3. Most importantly, Wynott finished +2 in his 10 minutes, Okafor +1 in his 9, and Gerrits -1 in his 4. Their contribution was huge early on, and it was awesome to see.

Unsurprisingly, when the game was slipping away in the first seven minutes of the second half, Riley mostly stuck with his starters, working in Okafor. Hindsight and all that, but I think there’s an argument to be made that he wasn’t aggressive enough in using his bench when it started to spiral. I wonder if he considers using those guys more heavily this week?

3. Can’t wait for February 19

It’s easy to see how this game could have gone differently if it was at home and if WSU had more players at their disposal. Five and half weeks from now, that will be the case: On a Wednesday night in Pullman, the Cougs should — at least — have Isaiah Watts back, and possibly even Rihards Vavers. Adding at least one shooter to the floor, not to mention a tenacious perimeter defender, might not have been the difference in winning and losing last night, but it would have made a huge difference — and it might make all the difference in the rematch. (To say nothing about the possibility of adding a second quality shooter.)

And that rematch is extremely important if this team wants to keep its slim at-large bid hopes alive for the NCAA tournament. Immediate reactions to the loss against Pacific were that our at large chances were dead, but that’s just not the case — right now, we’re the 14th team out at barttorvik.com with the projected results for the rest of the season. I’ve played around, um, A LOT at his site with results that could get WSU squarely on the bubble (as I often did last season), and it almost always comes down to getting a win against Gonzaga, the only truly elite team on the Cougars’ schedule. That was true before the loss to Pacific, which simply removed some wiggle room.

For example, here’s a plausible path to an at-large bid if WSU beats the Zags that night:

Seriously: That’s not a crazy set of results. Don’t lose hope yet!

Up Next: At San Diego

The Cougs will take on the Toreros at the Jenny Craig Pavilion on Thursday at 7 p.m. PT. Bonus points for you if you knew that Steve Lavin was their coach! Kenpom pegs WSU with an 88% chance to win by an average score of 82-69; barttorvik puts the numbers at 87% and 83-71.

1  Gonzaga has not lost there this year, and has only lost there three times in the last six seasons.

2  We laugh because we don’t want to cry.