WSU will be in a bowl game, but which one?

With its commanding win over Hawai’i and subsequent victory over San Diego State, not only will Washington State will be returning to a bowl after taking a year off — the Cougars are making the most of their schedule by piling up wins and continuing on a trajectory for an excellent bowl game.

As it stands, there is still a massive range of possibilities for where the Cougars could end up after the season. Pretty much every postseason option — including a College Football Playoff appearance — is still on the table. Trying to project where they’ll land is a little tricky, thanks to both the newness of this year’s CFP format and also the wonkiness of “Pac-12” bowl selection … but they’re definitely trending in the right direction.

Let’s explore some scenarios.

Could they really land in the CFP?

Technically, yes. Of course, it’s usually not great news when the answer to a question starts with the caveat, “technically.” Remember, it’s a 12-team field made up of:

• The five highest-ranked conference champs.

• The seven highest-ranked teams who are not conference champs.

Practically, it will very likely play out like this:

• The champs of the Power 4 conferences will earn automatic bids as the four highest-ranked champs;

• They’ll be joined by the highest ranked Group of 5 champion, who probably will be ranked outside the top 12; and

• The rest of the field will then be made up of the seven teams ranked No. 11 or higher that didn’t win their conference title.

For the purposes of the CFP, the Pac-12 — and its automatic bid — no longer exist. Although WSU and Oregon State have a scheduling agreement with the Mountain West, they’re not in that conference, either² , which means they’ll be treated as an independent by the CFP committee. Being an independent means the only path to the playoff for WSU is if they’re among those seven highest-ranked teams (as determined by the CFP committee).

Can WSU get as high No. 11, even if it wins out to get to 11-1?

ESPN’s playoff predictor gives WSU a 49% chance of winning out, and a 10% chance of being selected for the CFP. That means that the algorithm has concluded that if we do win out, we’ve got about a 20% chance of being selected.³ I don’t actually know how ESPN came up with the math to create selection probabilities (although I can make a decent educated guess⁴ ), but a 1-in-5 chance of a team with WSU’s schedule being ranked among the top 11 passes the smell test to me.

Beyond winning out and rooting for chaos above them, what would help WSU? If the CFP’s past behavior is predictive, “quality” wins are the biggest driver in their decisions. Because the CFP is fundamentally a made-for-TV tournament, they have seemed to make selections based on the likelihood that the team is going to be able to deliver a competitive game rather than adopting a true “resume” approach. (Looking at you, 2023 Florida State!)

WSU’s quality wins are … let’s say “lacking.” We don’t have one over a team ranked in the top 25, and our only top 25 opponent handed us a 21-point loss on the road. Our best bet is to hope that someone we’ve beaten — Texas Tech, Washington (ewww) — plays well enough over the last month to sneak into the top 25 by the end of the season.

These things are all unlikely … but not impossible!

Which bowl game, then?

In the probable event that WSU does not make the CFP and also doesn’t crap the bed in the final month, the Cougars will be in line for one of the Pac-12’s top bowls.