Gameday Guide: WSU at No. 25 Boise State

In today's newsletter ...

• A matchup of teams with big dreams

• Critical Info

• Gamblin’

• Injury Impact

  • WSU

  • Boise State

• Key matchups

• What I’ll be watching for

• What you can watch for: Gameday Bingo!

• Other games of interest

A matchup of teams with big dreams

The Washington State Cougars (4-0) travel to Idaho to face the Boise State Broncos (2-1) for what is now the biggest game of their season. The Apple Cup was huge, but with their perfect record still intact after a nail-biting thriller last Friday, this game is now huger.

Functionally, there’s very little to separate these teams, who will be conference mates in two seasons. The Broncos are ranked 25th by the AP, but WSU is “26” just a few points behind. If one voter had put WSU at 25 instead of Boise, the Cougs and Broncos would have tied at 25.

Most of the advanced metrics also find them to be about similar quality — FEI has the Cougs a few spots above Boise State, SP+ has Boise State a few spots ahead of the Cougs, etc. The Prediction Tracker, which aggregates ranking models, comes up with Boise State as between 1 and 2 points better in this matchup.

That’s all at odds with the betting market, which is about the only place where they aren’t seen as even — the Broncos opened as 6-point favorites and currently sit at -6.5.

It’s pretty hard to imagine that the Broncos are a full TD better than the Cougars, but as we all know: Weird things happen after dark. The stadium is going to be packed for the most anticipated Boise State game in years, and the crowd is going to be hostile.

Both teams’ fans are allowing themselves to dream big right now. WSU, of course, needs to finish inside the top 12 of the CFP rankings to qualify for the playoff, and that’s likely going to require an undefeated season. Boise State, meanwhile, doesn’t technically need this game — they could run the table after a loss and win the MWC with an 11-2 record, which might be enough to be the highest ranked G5 champ — but a win tonight would seriously bolster their resume.

Critical Info

• Game time: 7 p.m. PT

• Location: Albertson’s Stadium, Boise, Idaho

• Weather forecast at kickoff: 80(?!?) degrees and clear, slight breeze

• How to watch: FS1 or foxsports.com 

• How to listen: WSUCougars.com

• Live stats: StatBroadcast 

Gamblin’

Consensus via VegasInsider.com as of 11 a.m. PT.

Trends: WSU is 3-1 ATS, while Boise State is 1-2. The spread reached as high as BSU -8 this week, but has since come back down. Boise State has gone over the number all three games, but WSU just twice.

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