Saint Mary’s 80, WSU 75: Quick Recap

The Cougars played very well — their best game in weeks, really — but they just couldn’t quite keep up with the Gaels, who showed exactly why they’re the ones sitting undefeated on top of the WCC.

WSU started the game as well as they could have hoped for, surging out to a 12-3 lead. In what would be a theme throughout, they got everything they wanted in the paint¹ , fueled in large part by excellent defense that allowed them to get out and run and beat the Gaels’ renowned defense down the floor in transition.

As the half went on WSU was able to maintain its lead by taking the ball away a lot more than Saint Mary’s opponents typically do — the Gaels gave it away a surprising 10 times, which is more than they average per game — and the Cougars repeatedly turned it into points. Saint Mary’s was able to whittle the lead down to three at the break, but all told, it was an excellent half against an excellent opponent.

Things looked real good at the beginning of the second half, too. A 7-0 spurt in the first two minutes out of the break — fueled by some lock down defense on the Gaels — saw the lead hit double digits for the first time, and the Cougs’ win probability surged to around 70%.

But with 15 minutes to play, things went south. A 20-5 run by Saint Mary’s over the next seven minutes flipped the game on its head. The Gaels weren’t doing much different offensively, beyond no longer turning the ball over. That also allowed them to slow the game down considerably on defense, and with the Cougs unable to get out and run, they struggled to get clean looks against Saint Mary’s outstanding defense.

WSU cut the lead to one on multiple occasions, but each time, Saint Mary’s had an answer — the Gaels executed nearly flawlessly down the stretch to finish off the Cougars.

Pain.

In A Minute

• Cougfan recap from Friend of the Podcast Jamey Vinnick

• Stats

• Line o’ the night: Ethan Price with 20 points on 6-of-10 shooting (4-of-7 from 3).

• One stat to tell the tale: Saint Mary’s cut their turnovers from 10 in the first half to 2 in the 2nd and increased their scoring from 35 to 45.

Video

Again, there don’t appear to be any highlights.

Three Thoughts

1. When your best isn’t quite good enough

I said before the game that there’s a chance Saint Mary’s is the best team in the WCC, and nothing I saw yesterday dissuaded me of that possibility. That’s a really, really good team.

The Cougars played a hell of a game by just about any measure: Their game score at barttorvik.com was 87 — their highest in weeks, and roughly the equivalent to playing like a top 35 team. It was fueled largely by what I would say was their best offensive performance of the season; WSU’s 1.19 points per possession — behind 22-of-35 on 2s (63%) — was the most that the No. 28 defense on kenpom had allowed to anyone, all season. And that was without the benefit of WSU’s normal second chances: Saint Mary’s allowed the Cougars to corral just 20% of their misses.²  

There are a whole bunch of other metrics I could list that also indicate how well WSU played. And yet, the Cougars still lost. Sometimes that happens when you play against a really good opponent. Saint Mary’s is rated 25th by kenpom and 27th by barttorvik for a reason, and they showed why by making play after play down the stretch. The Gaels repeatedly took advantage of WSU’s switching defense by attacking mismatches and pounding the glass — two things they do to just about everyone.

The Cougars didn’t quit and didn’t fold. They just got beat.

2. Turnovers play a role again … but in a different way

Turnovers have been such a point of emphasis for David Riley, and the message seemed to get through: Just 12 of them, which represented 19% of WSU’s possessions. Again, it was their best performance on that front against a quality opponent in weeks, fueled largely by the elimination of bad pass turnovers — and it showed in their superlative points per possession performance.

On the flip side, Saint Mary’s struggled with turnovers in the first half, giving it away an uncharacteristic 10 times. It didn’t continue. As soon as the Gaels started holding onto the ball, they scored a lot more — sometimes, basketball is a pretty simple game. Honestly, I don’t think Saint Mary’s did much different in the second half offensively than they did in the first half; they just stopped turning it over. They put up four more shots in the second half than they did in the first half, and they scored 10 more points.

That was the difference.

3. Top four is the new target

The Cougs went 0-2 in a week where they really needed to get one win to still have plausible thoughts about earning an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. At this point — having only gone 1-3 so far against the top four teams in the league, with a loss to lowly Pacific also mixed in — here’s a set of results the rest of the way that would get us firmly back on the bubble:

Going 8-1 with wins over Gonzaga at home and Saint Mary’s on the road is kind of the bar just to get in the conversation. That seems highly improbable at this point!

What’s not improbable is getting into the top four of the WCC by the end of the season, which would allow them to skip the first two rounds of the WCC tournament and put them into the quarterfinals³ , needing just three wins to get the league’s autobid.

They’re a game back now, but the next three — all on the road — will go a long way toward that. Win two of those three, and you’re in good shape with four of your final six at Beasley.

Up Next: at Pacific

The Cougars will be out for some revenge on Thursday in Stockton, California. The Tigers have lost four straight since stunning WSU.

Will Isaiah Watts be available? There was some thought he would play against Saint Mary’s, but he didn’t … and Riley was really vague about his return this week. Not sure what’s going on there.

Tip off is at 7 p.m. PT, and we’re back on ESPN+.

1  Much to the surprise (chagrin?) of announcers Rich Waltz and Dan Dickau, who could hardly believe that they Cougars were doing what they do to most everyone against SAINT MARY’S.

2  The Cougars hadn’t been held under 30% since December 30.

3  Protecting the best teams is the right thing to do, in my opinion. I think all mid- and low-major leagues should do that.